Ukraine faces a long war. A change of course is needed
The conflict in Ukraine has consistently defied expectations and continues to do so. The counter-offensive initiated in June had hinged on the anticipation that well-equipped Ukrainian soldiers, after training in Germany and armed with modern Western weaponry, would successfully recapture sufficient territory to strengthen their position in potential negotiations, says The Economist.
This strategy, however, has proven ineffective. Despite valiant efforts and breaches in Russian defenses near Robotyne, Ukraine has managed to liberate less than 0.25% of the territory Russia occupied in June. The 1,000-kilometer front line remains largely unchanged. While there is still a chance that Ukraine’s army could achieve a breakthrough in the coming weeks, potentially leading to the collapse of the brittle Russian forces, the evidence from the past three months suggests caution.
The pursuit of a ceasefire or peace talks appears fruitless at this stage. Vladimir Putin exhibits no inclination for negotiation, and even if he did, doubts persist regarding his commitment to any agreement. Putin seems to be biding his time, anticipating Western fatigue and the possibility of Donald Trump’s reelection. For Putin, sustaining his domestic dictatorship necessitates the perpetuation of the conflict; thus, any ceasefire would merely serve as a respite to rearm and prepare for future hostilities. Ceasing fighting could endanger Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Both Ukraine and its Western supporters are gradually realizing that this conflict will likely be a protracted war of attrition. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent visit to Washington acknowledged the need to prepare for an extended struggle. Unfortunately, Ukraine and its Western allies are not yet adequately prepared. Their fixation on the counter-offensive must shift. Rather than aiming solely for a decisive victory followed by reconstruction, the goal should be to ensure Ukraine’s endurance in a long-term conflict while enabling it to prosper despite these challenges.
The first necessary recalibration is in the military realm. Ukrainian soldiers are fatigued, and many of their elite fighters have been lost. Even with conscription, Ukraine lacks the manpower to sustain a continuous large-scale counter-offensive. Resource management must become a priority, accompanied by shifts in tactics and technology. Innovations can shift the dynamics of the conflict by enabling Ukraine to take the battle to Russia. Ukraine’s tech-savvy entrepreneurs are ramping up drone production, with Ukrainian drones recently demonstrating their capability by destroying Russian warships and potentially damaging a significant air-defense system in Crimea. Expecting a decisive victory is unrealistic, as Russia has also intensified its drone production. Nonetheless, Ukraine can retaliate when targeted by Russian airstrikes and may even deter some attacks.
In tandem with offensive capabilities, Ukraine must bolster its resilience. Beyond heavy weaponry, the nation requires assistance with maintenance to sustain a multi-year fight. This includes routine repairs, reliable artillery supplies, and comprehensive training. Above all, an extended war necessitates improved air defense. Ukraine cannot thrive if Russia can target its infrastructure and civilians with impunity, as it has done over the past 18 months. Kyiv remains vibrant due to its effective defenses against continuous aerial attacks. Similar protection is needed for other cities, underscoring the importance of additional f-16 squadrons and more missile-defense systems.
Economic recalibration is equally vital. This entails a shift from lofty post-war reconstruction plans to a focus on immediate output and capital spending increases. Ukraine’s economy has contracted by a third, with nearly half of its budget financed by Western assistance. Despite a decrease in private investment, the hryvnia currency has strengthened, presenting an odd wartime economic phenomenon. Scarce labor resources exist, with approximately 1 million people armed and millions having fled the country.
Ukraine’s economic model must transition from aid dependence to attracting investment, even amid ongoing conflict. The nation possesses untapped potential, from increased arms production to enhanced agricultural processing. The challenge lies in incentivizing local and foreign firms to invest more and encouraging Ukrainians to return to the more peaceful western regions of the country.
Enhancing security can play a pivotal role. Stronger air defenses reduce the risk of factories being destroyed, while pushing back Russia’s navy increases the safety of exports through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Economic reforms are equally crucial, particularly in curbing Ukraine’s deep-rooted corruption. Prioritizing a clean and impartial judiciary is essential, alongside measures to simplify business operations, such as recognizing qualifications earned by refugees abroad and offering war insurance.
These efforts demand not only political will from Ukraine but also from its Western allies. Ultimately, NATO membership offers the best guarantee of Ukraine’s security. In the absence of that, partners have pledged bilateral security assurances. Equally important is the European Union’s potential contribution, extending beyond financial aid to include the prospect of membership. While nurturing a flourishing economy amid ongoing conflict is challenging, Ukraine, unlike Israel, has the potential for integration into the world’s wealthiest economic bloc. A roadmap for EU accession, spanning a decade and marked by clear milestones, could instill hope in Ukrainians and expedite economic reforms, mirroring the transformative effect similar promises had on Eastern Europe in the 1990s.
A new member on the horizon
To realize this vision, a shift in perspective is necessary within Europe. While Europe has committed considerable weaponry and substantial financial aid, further engagement is required. If Donald Trump secures victory in 2024, he may reduce American military assistance. Even if he doesn’t, Europe will eventually need to assume a larger share of the responsibility. This entails strengthening the defense industry and reforming EU decision-making processes to accommodate more members.
The stakes are undeniably high. Failure would result in a failed state at the EU’s doorstep and place Putin’s military apparatus closer to numerous European borders. Success would entail welcoming a new EU member with 30 million well-educated citizens, the continent’s largest army, and a substantial agricultural and industrial base. Many discussions concerning Ukraine hinge on the hope for an “end to the war.” It is time for a paradigm shift—a strategy that prepares for a prolonged struggle while striving for a Ukraine that can endure and thrive despite the challenges.
